The first round of the presidential elections in France is just around the corner as it takes place this Sunday. It’s no longer a no-event as 4 candidates are in the mix for the run-off and a prospect of Le Pen - Melenchon or Melenchon - Fillon (with polls strongly favouring the communist candidate in the second round in both cases) terrifying investors.
French presidential election - first round polling
So keeping in mind that the first round is about who is going to make it to the final showdown, the latest poll from Telegraph give some relief. It places Macron strongly on top of the list with 23.6% (up 1pp), followed by Le Pen (22.5%, unchanged), Fillon (19.4%, -1pp) and Melenchon (18.8%, unchanged). That would result in a Macron - Le Pen final clash with the centrist candidate demolishing the National Front leader 66 to 34%. It’s a good news for the markets and while these are just polls, we can see a positive reaction. It’s especially apparent on EURJPY where we used to see a strong downtrend that seems to have reversed. Tests of moving averages could provide interesting opportunities to join the move.