UK General Elections & Economic Figures - Reuters

UK General Elections & Economic Figures - Reuters

The most recent poll from Reuters among economists has shown some slightly more upbeat forecasts on the UK economy going forward. The median GDP growth for 2017 is now 1.7% from 1.6% previously and 1.3% in 2018 from 1.2% previously. (The previous poll was conducted last month.)

As far as inflation is concerned there is also slightly higher expectations with the 2017 reading expected to be 2.7% from 2.6% previously. The forecast for 2018 remains at 2.6%. This is obviously above the 2.0% threshold which is the upper target for Bank of England policy and in light of this it is perhaps surprising that the central bank is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged until 2019 at least.

As for post-Brexit trade terms the survey revealed a median expectation of a 30% chance the UK leaving the EU on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms. At present Prime Minster’s questions are currently taking place in Westminster, after which MPs will vote on the motion to hold a general election on the 8th June. This requires the support of 2/3rds of MPs but despite the Scottish National Party (SNP) announcing that they will abstain the vote is widely expected to pass.

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