The holiday break is coming, but the markets must remain on high alert as the geopolitics has become more complicated of late. And Donald Trump has not dropped the habit of making foreign policy through morning (US time) tweets so market-moving headlines could come unexpectedly (no market-relevant fixed-time points in Trump’s agenda today). Let’s focus here on planned events however.
The main data from the EMU is already behind us with final March inflation releases from main member states. Everything in line with the consensus which simply expected the preliminary readings to be confirmed. The euro did weaken however vs. USD in the morning, trading below 1.065 and close to the bottom of the range from the first week of April
1:30 pm BST, Canada manufacturing sales for February - usually when the consensus pointed to a monthly drop the series moved down even more than assumed, the streak of positive surprises has been really long by now, but we can see that CAD is doing quite well today, coming third among G-10 currencies, just after the Antipodean fx.
Canadian data on manufacturing sales (red) are consequently beating the market consensus (green), which is more and more convinced there should be a big correction at some point; source: Bloomberg
1:30 pm BST US PPI data for March - the headline and core measure are expected to advance some more in MoM and YoY terms. If the core PPI moves as expected it would finally climb higher than it was in 2H of 2016, possibly to the strongest level since 1Q 2015 so this could see some reaction. Bear in mind however that Fed members have been commenting inflation levels in various ways (commenting if the target has been (close to being) met or not) and that this is just a proxy for consumer price indices.
3 pm BST, USA, University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment. This will be a preliminary check of what happened in April. The alternative measure from Conference Board went sky high, while UoM index is capped close to 98 pts and now expected to lose about 0.5 points. The drop could be even larger if households show the same disappointment markets did when Republicans failed to replace Obamacare and cast doubts about the whole tax cuts, jobs growth and investment spending agenda.
We are still waiting for Chinese data on new loans which should come any time between now and 15-Apr.
The only scheduled public appearance of major central bankers is BoC’s Poloz and Wilkins before the Senate Finance Committee at 3:30 pm BST.